Saxony-Anhalt: Far-right AfD secures huge lead in key vote

Ulrich Siegmund, the head of the far-right AfD party in Saxony-Anhalt, celebrated AfD’s apparent victory after the exit polls were made public.

“We’ve made history, we need to say this clearly,” he told German public broadcaster ARD.

Siegmund also said the result was also a “signal” for Germany’s federal government, led by CDU politician Friedrich Merz.

Speaking about potentially building a coalition with one of the other parties — most of which ruled out working with the far-right party ahead of the election — Siegmund said the AfD is open to cooperation, in its own terms.

“We will not give away our basic positions for the sake of being in power,” he said.
 

With polls closing in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt, exit polls indicate that the far-right AfD party has secured 44.5% of the votes, with the center-right CDU at 18.5%.

You can keep up with our live coverage of the Saxony-Anhalt election on our website, in this live blog, and in our YouTube stream here:

Ahead of the first projections, polling institutes are under particular scrutiny in Saxony-Anhalt. Five years ago, pre-election surveys differed significantly from the final result: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) performed much better than expected, while the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) did considerably worse.

Roland Abold, managing director of Infratest dimap, told DW that polling institutes had therefore examined the race particularly closely this time.

“We can say that there was relatively little movement in the polls before the election,” he said.

Recent surveys put the AfD at around 40 to 41% and the governing CDU at roughly 22 to 23%. The Left Party and Social Democrats are also expected to enter parliament, while the Greens are hovering around the 5% threshold needed to win seats.

Abold also said one problem seen in earlier elections appears to have eased: “Regarding the polls beforehand, one can say that the issue of people not admitting that they intend to vote for certain parties has actually declined.”

Why are far-right parties attracting growing support, and what does that mean for Germany’s political future? DW’s Christine Mundwa explores these questions with British-German historian and writer Katja Hoyer, LA Times reporter Erik Kirschbaum, and DW’s Matthew Moore.

 Saxony-Anhalt’s economic reputation is at risk as the far-right Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) eyes victory in the eastern German state, business experts have warned.

Economist Monika Schnitzer said investment and skilled workers from abroad could be more difficult to attract to the state.

“Given the party’s election program, it can be expected that if the AfD takes over the government, the state will become significantly less attractive as a location for skilled workers and companies,” Schnitzer told the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger newspaper.

Michael Hüther, director of the German Economic Institute (IW) think tank, warned: “Anyone competing for foreign skilled workers must not strengthen a party that openly calls for their expulsion.”

He told the Rheinische Post that without immigration, demographic trends could cause the state’s working-age population to shrink by around a quarter by 2045, leaving more than one non-working person for every person of working age.”

Christian Bruch, chief executive of Siemens Energy, cautioned that the AfD’s energy policies calling for a return to coal and nuclear power were also bad for German industry.

“Nostalgic politics keeps setting us further back,” he said.

All eyes are on Magdeburg, the state capital of Saxony-Anhalt.

When broadcasters release their first projections at 6 p.m., Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be watching closely from CDU headquarters in Berlin, about 150 kilometers to the northeast.

For Merz, the vote is shaping up as an early test of a pledge he made as opposition leader: to cut support for the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) in half, in part by taking a hard line on immigration.

Projections suggest the strategy has yet to deliver the results Merz promised, with the AfD on course to become the strongest party in Saxony-Anhalt.

The campaign unfolded against a backdrop of deep dissatisfaction with the federal government, so much so that Merz was largely kept out of the spotlight and made few campaign appearances.

Perhaps reflecting the political sensitivity of the result, the chancellor will not personally comment on the election results Sunday or Monday, according to party and government sources.

“There are barricades around the Old Theater in Magdeburg, as reporters and politicians gather to take in tonight’s potentially historic result” of the Saxony-Anhalt election, DW’s Matthew Moore reports from the AfD election headquarters.

“Around 1,800 police officers have been brought in from other German states to boost security in Magdeburg this weekend.”

“The intermittent barking of sniffer dogs fills the air,” our reporter says.

“Every bag is being checked twice.”

“There is a tension in the air,” Moore adds. “It feels less an election count and more like a high-security summit of G7 leaders.”

For many people with a migration background, today’s election raises questions about belonging, security and their future in Germany.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) advocates a restrictive immigration policy centered on sharply reducing migration, increasing deportations and promoting what it calls “remigration.” It also emphasizes national sovereignty, cultural identity and traditional family values.

DW spoke to some people with a migration background to get their perception of the election.
Read more about what they had to say.

Saxony-Anhalt’s election could be historic, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leading polls above 40% and in a strong position to head a state government for the first time in postwar Germany.

The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Left Party are also expected to win seats, in the state parliament and possibly the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), while the environmentalist Greens, the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are all fighting to clear the 5% threshold.

The performance of these smaller parties could prove decisive. If the SPD, Greens, FDP, and BSW fail to clear the 5% hurdle, the AfD would benefit from the redistribution of seats and could govern alone. If more parties enter parliament, coalition-building would become much more complex.

Read more about the coalition calculation by clicking here. 

The first indication of the outcome of Saxony-Anhalt’s state election is expected at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), when polling stations close.

Germany’s public broadcasters ARD and ZDF are due to publish their first projections at that time.

ARD’s projection, produced by polling institute Infratest dimap, will be based on interviews with around 20,000 voters at 180 polling stations across the state.

ZDF’s election figures are provided by polling institute Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.

The initial projections are not based on a complete count of ballots. They will be followed by increasingly reliable estimates as actual results from polling stations and postal votes are incorporated.

A preliminary official result is expected during the night.

Reporting from Magdeburg, DW’s Jens Thurau said voter turnout is up massively since the last election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2021.

“The high level of attention this election is receiving within the state itself is also reflected in the high voter turnout. At noon, it stood at around 34%, compared to just 22.4% at the same time in the last election five years ago.”

“Who benefits when so many more people exercise their right to vote? In many past elections, smaller parties have profited from this, as they tend to be stronger among voters who decide to vote at the last minute. But will that also be the case in Saxony-Anhalt?”

As well as the two frontrunners, the lead candidates for the Greens, the center-left Social Democrats and the socialist Left Party have cast their ballots.

Green Party lead candidate Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz voted at 10 a.m. at a polling station in Quedlinburg in the Harz district. A party spokesperson said there had only been a short queue.

Social Democratic Party lead candidate Armin Willingmann cast his ballot with his wife in the center of Wernigerode, also in the Harz district.

The Left lead candidate Eva von Angern voted in Magdeburg’s Neu-Olvenstedt district. Several people had gathered outside the polling station, and everything remained peaceful, according to her spokesperson.

The business-focused Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the populist left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also contesting the election, although it was not immediately clear whether their lead candidates had already cast their ballots by mid-morning on Sunday.

Saxony-Anhalt State Premier Sven Schulze is determined to keep the AfD from becoming the first far-right party since World War II to lead a German state government.

In the run-up to today’s vote, he repeated his campaign message “It’s far from decided,” over and over.

The party is polling at over 40% compared to Schulze’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at around 23%.

Schulze is hoping the AfD will stay below 50% and so be unable to secure a majority in the state parliament, and with no other party willing to join it in a coalition, the AfD would be unable to form a government.

That would leave it up to Schulze to form a coalition, perhaps with as many as three partners, and remain in office.

DW’s Michaela Kufner spoke with him a few weeks ago:

The regional train from Potsdam to Magdeburg is unusually crowded for a Sunday morning.

Everywhere you hear people talking about the outcome of the state election in Saxony-Anhalt.

Interest in the election is huge ― 500 journalists from all over the world have registered to cover it, including from the US and Canada, as well as Taiwan and China.

And it somehow fits with Germany’s state of crisis that the train has recently stopped running directly to the state capital, Magdeburg, and now only goes as far as the suburb of Burg — due to construction work. Of all days on this election weekend…